ST. LOUIS – The main story the next two days is the very warm temperatures. It’s an early taste of summer with highs in the mid-80s Wednesday and low 90s Thursday—just shy of the record high of 94. With that, stronger storms are anticipated to move through the area on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday afternoon and evening

There is a level 2 (out of 5) risk of a very fast moving, isolated, severe storm or two late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening for our southeastern viewing area.

If they develop, these are expected to be isolated storms, but could be quite strong.

The risk will be confined to the 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. window of time. Isolated damaging wind, hail and tornado threat will exist. A weak front will cross the region with a subtle wind shift from southwest to more of a westerly direction.

Friday afternoon and evening

The weak front that crosses the region Thursday evening will settle over southern Missouri early Friday and then start to march slowly back to the north as a warm front—how far the moisture and warm front are able to return to the north will dictate the threat zone for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening.

A level 2 (out of 5) risk for severe storms exists Friday afternoon/evening over the southeast half of the viewing area. 

The big picture indicators point to a threat for a severe complex of storms to track across southeast Missouri into southern Illinois late in the day. This is the type of event that could produce both very large hail, but also widespread damaging winds. 

The biggest question is how far north will the threat extend. It will most certainly clip our southeastern counties, but could very well reach further to the north to near metro St. Louis.

Of the two days, Friday has my greatest concern because of the higher end potential over our southern viewing area…and the potential for more widespread coverage. Unfortunately, details about the exact timing and location are just not know at this time.

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