ST. LOUIS – Forecasting the possibility for aurora viewing is incredibly challenging to predict and, like meteor showers, often falls short of expectations. But occasionally, they can overachieve and dazzle as they did several times last year.
The initial wave of the solar blast, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), arrived Sunday morning, much earlier than previously predicted. Remember, I said it’s really hard to forecast these things.
On Sunday morning, the St. Louis area had a max K-index at about an 8. We still have K-index values a little over 7 and are forecasted to remain in that 7 to 8 range into early Sunday evening.
St. Louis needs a K-index of 8 or 9 for us to see the aurora, so we are right on the edge of that going into Sunday night.
On a normal, crystal-clear spring night, I’d say we have a decent shot of seeing something. But this is not an ordinary spring night.
Unfortunately, we continue to have quite a plume of smoke blowing south out of Canada, and my gut tells me that is going to really make it tough to get a good showing, even if the geomagnetic storm overachieves this evening.
That being said, if you live away from the city lights and have the time, it might be worth giving it a look for a while this evening just in case. You might get lucky! But I wouldn’t be shocked if the haze and smoke make things difficult to enjoy.
