ST. LOUIS — Easter Sunday is expected to bring severe weather to much of Missouri and western Illinois, with the greatest risk occurring from mid-afternoon into the evening.
Rain and thunderstorms will increase late Saturday evening, spreading into eastern Missouri overnight. The heaviest rain and most thunderstorms are expected between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Sunday. Although there will be significant lightning and possibly small hail, the threat of severe weather overnight is low.
On Easter Sunday morning, rain and storms will continue through sunrise but will lift to the northeast between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. Most areas will experience dry conditions from 10 a.m. through 4 p.m., with some sunshine possible. However, a few pop-up showers or early afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
By Sunday evening, the dry weather and warming temperatures will contribute to the development of strong to severe storms advancing from central Missouri into eastern Missouri. These storms could bring large hail, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and even a few tornadoes, particularly in central Missouri, which is under a Level 3 risk zone.
The extent of severe weather reaching eastern Missouri and Illinois is uncertain and will depend on the degree of warming and destabilization ahead of the storms. If skies remain cloudy and temperatures do not rise as expected, the severe potential may be mitigated. Conversely, if skies clear and temperatures rise above projections, the risk could increase.
Storm timeline:
- Sunday morning (8 a.m. – 10 a.m.): Storms move northeast and taper off; dry conditions begin to spread across the region.
- Late Sunday morning through mid-afternoon (10 a.m. – 4 p.m.): Mostly dry with occasional sun; isolated pop-up showers or early thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
- Sunday late afternoon into evening: Strong to severe storms expected to develop and move from central into eastern Missouri, possibly reaching the St. Louis area in the evening.
- Evening into Sunday night: Storms may weaken as they push further east into Illinois, but timing and intensity will depend on cloud cover and afternoon warming.