ST. LOUIS – No two ways about it, it’s been a wild and wet spring – literally. From March 14—the day we had 12 tornadoes—until the beginning of May, we’ve had more rain and severe weather than a normal spring, more than any spring of recent memory. Now, as temperatures start to warm, we’ll see the beginning signs of what summer is really going to be like.
June
In June, we are climatologically moving from the severe season—the tornado season—to the hot season of summer. Record highs this time of year are generally near 100 degrees, especially towards the end of the month. Average highs in June are in the mid to upper 80s, so there is some heat.
This June, we are growing into a new pattern. It’s out with the spring pattern of active weather and big rain and in with some dry time. The month will start warmer than normal, then cool a little towards the third week. By the end of the month, the heat is back on. That cooldown will be our best chance of rain, and by best chance, I think a system that could give us near an inch of rain. We will need it by that point after mostly dry time for the first couple of weeks.
June 2024 was quite warm, with only five days that averaged below normal temperatures. This June will not be as hot, but there will be some really warm days.
Last June was dryer than usual, too, and started on a mainly dry stretch throughout the summer. This June there will be some rain chances, but we’ll end up below normal.
July
July is centered around “The Fourth,” with some opining that it’s the halfway point for the summer. But we know that it’s a month of sports and outside time. June is ending dry and warm. That’s where July will pick up.
We’ll have some solid heat all month long. A 93-degree high is the benchmark for heat; I think we’ll be riding that line the whole month. But to start, we have a chance at being near 100 degrees. Some cooler air may begin to filter in by late month, along with some rain chances. Any shot at normal rainfall will come in the last two weeks.
Three big storms in July 2024 sent our rainfall total well above normal for the month. This July, there are some storm chances all month, but they may be more numerous towards the end of the month.
Last July, the rain helped to keep temperatures from getting too extreme, although it was warm by the end of the month. This July is trending pretty hot all month long, with the potential for a 100-degree day or two early. Some relief comes in the last week of the month.
August
August may define how we remember and analyze summer altogether. The summer to this point will be trending drier and warmer, and that may not slow down this August. We are no strangers to heat in July and August, but there could be a stretch where it becomes a little too much. We’re looking at mostly 90s for highs and warm overnight lows. There may be a couple days in which we don’t get below 80 degrees for an overnight low temperature.
August 2024 rainfall was the complete opposite of the preceding July – really dry (-2”). This August will be similar, with one or two storms with rainfall potential, but mostly dry.
In 2024, August averaged close to normal temps, but we had a couple of 100-degree days at the end of the month. This August trends warm, both during the daytime and at night. Mostly 90s for highs and a chance at 100 degrees.