ST. LOUIS – In the midst of the severe weather season, much of Missouri residents will see some type of severe weather Tuesday.
Monday night into early Tuesday
Dry weather is expected this evening. Beginning Monday night, scattered storms are expected to begin in northwest Missouri, but will weaken in intensity as they move into the St. Louis area after midnight and into the early Tuesday morning hours.
A few near severe wind gusts of 40-50 mph and possibly some small hail will be possible, along with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. The morning storms look more like a nuisance/inconvenient weather event.
Tuesday midday to afternoon
There is a Level 2 (out of 5) risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The morning rain and storms will help push the firing line for new storms further south for the afternoon—how far south remains unclear at this time. There will be a good chance for redeveloping showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over the southern viewing area.
Depending on the timing and location, a few strong to severe storms will be possible south and southeast of metro St. Louis Tuesday afternoon/evening. The main threats will be strong wind gusts up to 60 mph and some hail from nickels up to the size of quarters.
Tuesday night into Thursday
The front that brings storms to the region Tuesday will stall near the Missouri/Arkansas state line. That will serve as the running board for new bundles of energy to ride up from the south, generating several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Wednesday and Thursday.
The severe threat in this pattern looks low. Instead, it looks more like repeating episodes of unsettled weather with some thunder and occasional heavy downpours, especially for those south of Interstate 70.
Total rainfall this week will range from 1 to 2 inches on average across the viewing area. Enough to keep things wet, not enough to bring rivers back up into flood.