ST. LOUIS – The St. Louis Blues still have playoff hopes heading into their final week of the regular season, but they’ll need quite a lot to happen to make it a reality.
Four games remain in the Blues’ regular season schedule, the first of those four games set for Wednesday evening. The Blues are still in the hunt for one of two Wild Card seeds in the Western Conference.
The Blues head into Wednesday’s showdown with 87 points and a best possible finish of 95 points. MoneyPuck.com projects their playoff chances at right around 1%, so indeed, St. Louis will need several lucky twists of fate.
First thing to know, two teams could potentially stand in the Blues way of clinching a playoff berth…
The Los Angeles Kings have 93 points with four games remaining.
The Vegas Golden Knights have 92 points with five games remaining.
At least one of the Kings or Golden Knights will make playoffs as one will eventually finish the regular season as the third-seeded team in the Pacific Division bracket within the Western Conference.
Simply put, the Blues will need to finish ahead of whoever doesn’t get that division seed between Los Angeles and Vegas to make playoffs. They are the only remaining team in the Western Conference that still mathematically has a chance at playoffs but currently sits outside the picture.
So let’s break it down. What do the Blues need in two unique scenarios to make playoffs?
If the Kings clinch playoffs next…
The Blues would need to finish with more points than the Vegas Golden Knights to guarantee a playoff spot. If both are even at the season’s end, there’s a possibility the Blues could get in based on tiebreakers.
FIRST TIEBREAKER
The first tiebreaker is fewer number of games played, which would not really apply assuming both finish out their full 82-game schedules.
SECOND TIEBREAKER
The second tiebreaker is greater number of games won, excluding overtime or shootout victories.
The Blues currently have 29 of those. The Golden Knights currently have 32 of those. The Blues will only beat that by winning out the rest of their regular season games in regulation and Vegas still not finishing ahead of them in points.
THIRD TIEBREAKER
The third tiebreaker, assuming the Blues and Knights are even in points and non-overtime and non-shootout wins, would be wins before a shootout.
The Blues currently have 36 of those. The Golden Knights currently have 38 of those. The Blues would need to win at least three more times than Vegas down the stretch in non-shootout fashion, but also have the first two tiebreakers even, to advance in this scenario.
FOURTH TIEBREAKER
The fourth tiebreaker is total games won in any manner.
The Blues currently have 41 of those. The Golden Knights currently have 42 of those. The Blues would need to win at least two more times more Vegas down the stretch in any fashion, but also have the first three tiebreakers even, to advance in this scenario.
FIFTH TIEBREAKER
The fifth tiebreaker is points earned head-to-head.
Assuming it gets to this situation, Vegas would ultimately win this tiebreaker, going 2-0-1 (5 points) vs. the Blues 1-1-1 mark (3 points) head-to-head.
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR THE BLUES
To guarantee playoffs, the Blues would need to win out and the Golden Knights would need to miss out on points in four of their last five remaining games or the Blues would need to win three of their last four with the Golden Knights losing out. That would be before tiebreakers apply. Both seem like very unlikely scenarios, but mathematically, there’s a chance.
If the Golden Knights clinch playoffs next…
The Blues would need to finish with more points than the Los Angeles to guarantee a playoff spot. If both are even at the season’s end, the Kings would advance because they already have more wins in non-overtime and non-shootout settings (35) than the Blues could achieve by winning out (33).
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR THE BLUES
To guarantee playoffs, the Blues would need to win out and the Kings would need to lose out with the possibility of only one of their remaining four games heading to overtime.
What’s left for the Blues?
The Blues have four games left in the regular season, including their next three at home…
Wednesday, April 10 vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Friday, April 12 vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Sunday, April 14 vs. Seattle Kraken
Wednesday, April 17 vs. Dallas Stars
The Blackhawks and Kraken are both below the Blues in the Western Conference standings. The Stars and Hurricanes have already clinched playoff seeds.
The Blues could be potentially be eliminated Wednesday if they lose in regulation and the Golden Knights win in regulation.
The Blues, in any scenario they clinch playoffs, would not know until at least their final game next Wednesday. Some playoff implications could come down to the NHL’s final game of the regular season the next day.
All things considered, don’t bank on a playoff run, but the Blues aren’t out of it just yet.