ST. LOUIS – Winters in St. Louis have been getting milder. Over the last several years, there have been very few big snowstorms and only small amounts of cold air.

Chris talked about the solar cycle and the path forward—I think that is one of the bigger factors involved in this outlook. That and a rapid cooling of the ocean temperatures could throw things a bit out of wack. Always a challenge, so let’s dive in.

December

The trends over the last few months have us a little nervous about December. Long stretches of dry time in June, then giant rain in July. August was dry and September started dry, with big rain at the end of the month. October and now November are the same—big precipitation events. So that trend in December could be interesting.

Recent events aside, I think the first half of the month will be mild—very un-December-like. Then it won’t be. A couple of fronts could bring the temperatures down and the chance of snow to St. Louis. There looks to be a couple of snow chances right before Christmas and one right after.

So, I am leaning towards a white Christmas, along with some travel issues before and after. 

Last December, we had some rain events early in the month, then rain on Christmas. Snow was light after Christmas.

This December, look for some spots of rain early, then a big transition before Christmas that could lead to some snow chances by Christmas Day.

Temperatures were mild on average last year, finishing 8 degrees above normal.

This December, we are mild to start, then colder at the end.

January

As you know, January is the coldest month of the year. But the coldest days on average are Jan. 5 to roughly Jan. 23. This year, I think we are on that track.

The cold air from the end of December sticks around for a few weeks in January. Look for highs to be in the 20s and 30s from early in the month until about Jan. 20. After that, it warms up a little, something we call the “January Thaw.”

What concerns me are the transitions into the cold and the transitions out of the cold. Those are spots where snow or ice can threaten. So this year, look for snow early in the month, then snow or sleet mid-month as we start to work in warmer air. 

Last January, we had some big time cold in the middle of the month—do you remember the 14th with a high of 3 degrees and a low of negative 7 degrees?

This January we are cold at the beginning of the month, then warmer at the end… on average pretty close to normal.

Last year, we had several small snow events that brought a total of five and a half inches for the month.

This year, I think we have some snow chances as we transition into and out of colder air. Let’s watch the end of the month for bigger snow.

February

Two great things about February: it’s the shortest month–although some times it feels like the longest–but we also increase the daily amount of daylight by two minutes per day! So we will have that going for us.

The way the global patterns will set up this winter, there is quite a bit of cold air in Canada. That will get released in waves late in the season. So look for shots of cold air to pound down from the north. Each shot will bring snow potential, but in that scenario, we won’t get a ton of snow with each front. We will have to see if a “four corners” storm rolls from the southwest—that’s where we get our biggest storms. 

Last February was extremely mild with 60s and 70s—and even 86 at the end of the month. This year, its colder—by far. Waves of cold will drop in from the north.

February 2024 snow was limited to just one storm of 3 inches–it was too mild for snow.

But this year, its colder, so snow chances are better, especially if we get into a pattern that can access moisture.