The states of Missouri and Illinois are very familiar with strong tornadoes. The Good Friday, New Year’s Eve, and Amazon tornadoes come to mind as recent examples. However, it is the Joplin tornado of May 22, 2011, that holds the place as the most violent and deadly tornado in modern history for both Missouri and Illinois.

The Joplin tornado cut a 20+ mile path across the heart of the southwest Missouri town, killing 158 people and injuring hundreds if not thousands more. Thousands of buildings were damaged or destroyed.

Later this month, Netflix will run a new documentary commemorating the anniversary of the tornado with a focus on the students at Joplin High School who graduated only a few hours before the tornado struck. Those students are now in their 30s.

Following the tornado, research showed that a key factor leading to the fatalities was warning fatigue. Many residents simply didn’t take the warning seriously enough to act to protect themselves until it was too late.

Many have asked if a Joplin-like tornado could happen here in St. Louis. The answer is, it can, and it already has. In fact, two of the most destructive tornadoes in history struck St. Louis in September 1927 and May 1896.

What would a Joplin-like tornado look like in St. Louis? I overlayed the exact track from the 2011 tornado over metro St. Louis. The tornado would touch down in Wildwood along Manchester Road/Hwy 100. It would continue east through Ellisville, Manchester and into Des Peres and Kirkwood before turning southeast and lifting over Lemay. A path of just over 20 miles and a mile wide in spots. It would level some of the most populated and heavily retail areas in St. Louis County. Experts agree, it’s not a matter of if such a storm could strike, but a matter of when, which is why being prepared is always so important.